As taken from the written assignment:
Scenario: The Carr administration confronts a dangerous new crisis on the Korea peninsula. Only weeks after Kim Jong Il's sudden (and still publicly unacknowledged) death in North Korea, visible strife has broken out in Pyongyang and elsewhere in the country, provoked by an apparent internal struggle for power. The Dear Leader's youngest son and heir apparent, Kim Jong Eun has made an attempt to consolidate his rule around a new and younger cohort of North Korean leaders representing the "rising generation". However, their attempts to begin setting the agenda of the country have been blocked by members of teh Dear Leader's remaining inner circle, led by Jang Song Thaek and his wife, Kim Kyong Hui (Him Jong Il's sister). Speculation swirls that O Kuk Ryol, Vice-Chair on the National Defense Commission in North Korea and Ti Yong Ho, Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army have sided with Kim John Eun and the "rising generation, thus increasing his clout. With splits in the military leadership emerging, it is increasingly unclear to western analysts who currently controls North Korea's nuclear weapons. Concern has also grown dramatically in the past three days, after a North Korean warship attacked an unarmed Japanese fishing vessel and took the crew into cutody, alleging violation of territorial waters. China's leadership has vigorously defended the North Korean military action, citing the right for the regime in Pyongyang to protect its sovereignty at a delicate moment in its history. This has drawn vociferous and strident criticism from Tokyo and Seoul, where leaders of both countries have denounced the North Korean moves and condemned China for again failing to support international law, as it did months earlier when it refused to support the findings of an international investigation of North Korea's sinking of a South Korean naval warship in interntaional waters. Now, in the aftermath of floods that wiped out crops earlier this year, new signs of deepening famine have appeared from intercepted communications and satellite images are detecting large scale movements of people toward the boarders with China and smaller movements of people towards the Demilitarized Zone. In the last 24 hours, reports of troop movements on the northern side of the DMZ have raised additional fears of what may be happening inside North Korea and there is a heightened state of alert on the DMZ itself. An official in South Korea's Ministry of Unification has been quoted in the western media speculating that the North Korean regime is on the verge of collapse. However, the Korean Central News Agency continues to report that the Dear Leader is consulting with his son and top aides to deal with the Japanese crisis and that rumors of famine and internal strife among the people of North Korea are nothing more than "imperialist rumors".
The Council on Foreign Relations stance is clear - the North Koreans must denuclearise. This should not only be the priority of the U.S., but it is a necessity shared by both the South Koreans and the Japanese.
ReplyDeleteThe CFR proposes five course of action that the U.S. could take:
1. The U.S. could accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. This, however, would pose long term risks and would contradict U.S. intentions up to this point in time. Ultimately this acceptance would damage the credibility of the U.S. alliance framework.
2. Manage and contain the North Korean proliferation of nuclear materials. This, the CFR conclude, doesn't emphasise denuclearisation as urgent and doesn't prevent the North Koreans from exporting weapons or developing newer or better weapons.
3. Rollback policy. This policy in relation to North Korea would take denuclearisation seriously. It is a course of action that emphasises U.S. interests and conforms to them. It bases itself on the concept that strategic patience alone cannot be relied upon.
4. Externally led regime change. For obvious reasons due to the struggles in Iraq this action is not particularly favoured. Military conflict could have a bad impact upon North Korea's neighbours which could harm U.S. relations and interests.
5. Internally led regime change. The CFR heavily promotes this, and given the current confusion over who is governing North Korea, the U.S. should identify who they wish to control North Korea and try to gain the North Korean public's approval.
One of the main issues, however, is that we still don't know who is in control of the North Korean weapons. In order to progress with any of these options we need to establish who is in possession of them. From CFR reports both potential leaders (Un and Taek) could be beneficial for U.S.- North Korea relations in the future. Taek is a technocrat who would try to replicate South Korea's economic expansion, whilst it is said Kim Jong-Un spent two years growing up in Switzerland and is said to be "enamored with Western Culture."
A very basic and quick description of the CFR's perspective on the situation.
Kissinger Institute recommendations towards certain issues:
ReplyDeleteSix Party Talks:
The Kissinger Institute recommends resumption of the six-party talks involving the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan. Although North Korea pulled out of these talks in 2009, the talks did produce some progress since North Korea agreed during the fifth round to shut down its nuclear facilities in exchange for fuel aid and steps towards the normalization of relations with the United States and Japan. This strategy of offering diplomatic recognition and other incentives in exchange for dialogue on human rights and other issues has already been adopted by European countries, and the European Union has now become a significant trade partner with North Korea and modest dialogues between Pyongyang officials and ambassadors from E.U. countries have been held. Having regular exchanges and embassies on the ground in North Korea may eventually build up the trust necessary to make progress on denuclearization. Again, Beijing should be the host and chief promoter of these talks but, this time, the U.S. need to convince China to devise measures to hold North Korea accountable within the six-party framework if it commits another provocation, otherwise there is no way the talks can resume.
Refugees:
The Kissinger Institute believes that the shooting incident that may have happened at the border between China and North Korea was probably a panic-stricken reaction of the Chinese since the country did not know how to respond to such a huge flow of refugees. Therefore, the U.S. should assist China with this burden by sending food aid and technical and humanitarian assistance and the Catholic Relief Service should be in command of this help. Although the Chinese government have previously prevented aid agencies from entering the region to monitor the situation and possibly set up refugee camps, Chinese officials have generally tolerated the activities of foreign NGOs so long as such activities were carried out quietly. Since China does not usually allow North Koreans to apply for political asylum, the U.S. should soon start resettling large numbers of North Korean refugees. South Korea historically has been viewed by the United States and other countries as the preferred resettlement country for North Koreans. However, granting U.S. asylum to North Koreans would help share the burden of accepting the refugees with the South Korean government. Some Korean-American groups have indicated that their community is willing to facilitate increased resettlement in the United States. Nevertheless, South Korea should remain the primary destination for defectors from the North.
Japanese Fishermen:
The fact that North Korea has taken these men captive and is probably putting them on trial is a serious but really difficult case. Obviously, the U.S. should support the UN resolution, but there is a significant chance that China will veto any proposition. Nevertheless, this incident should not have the Government’s priority since it is especially Japan’s own responsibility to start negotiations in order to release these men. As long as the situation in North Korea remains unstable, the U.S. should only focus on supporting Japan in all its efforts instead of taking actions concerning this issue itself.